As before every major race, Sailorz reached out to a panel of experts to assess the contenders lined up for the Route du Rhum-Destination Guadeloupe 2026 in the Ultim class. Taking part in the exercise were Thomas Rouxel, a seasoned trimaran specialist having sailed extensively with Thomas Coville; Yann Eliès, race director of the 24H Ultim and coach at the Finistère offshore racing hub (Pôle Finistère Course au large); Pierre-Marie Bourguinat, writer for the race; and Gaston Morvan, a member of SVR-Lazartigue‘s routing team.
With eight solo sailors at the start, including one woman, Alexia Barrier (Idec Sport CIC, 46), a major first, the Ultim class has never been so well represented in the Route du Rhum. However, it is a two-tier fleet: three of them—Barrier, Louis Burton (Armand Thiery, 41), and Guirec Soudée (Liamm, 34), who are setting off on older-generation boats—are never mentioned by our experts as podium contenders.
Among the other five, defending champion Charles Caudrelier is considered in a league of his own by our experts, who find it hard to gauge where he stands given that his Maxi Edmond de Rothschild, launched only last February, is sailing its very first race—and in single-handed mode at that. “I’m not putting him anywhere because I really feel they will be running out of time,” reckons Yann Eliès. “It’s true that the upcoming weather conditions might allow him to make the boat to the finish line, or even win, but it’s extremely tough to call because we haven’t seen them race; we don’t know if they can go 24 hours without breaking something.”
“Even though we know that potentially it’s the fastest boat, it’s still very new and very innovative,” analyses Thomas Rouxel. “We’ve seen them tinkering a lot with the appendages, and we all have doubts about their ability to hold up over five to seven days.” Gaston Morvan is more cautious: “Gitana is the X factor; so far they’ve been working somewhat under the radar, but I get the sense Charles is starting to smile along the pontoons, which must be a good sign. As I see it, he’s just as capable of winning with a full day’s lead as he is of not finishing. It’s still a heavyweight team doing great work, and the initial weather pattern, which is fairly straightforward, is ideal. What follows looks much trickier, however, with transitions where things could get much harder for him.”
Pierre-Marie Bourguinat adds: “What I’m certain of is that if the team chose to enter the boat, it’s because they believe they can finish first, and win second. I ran into Charles at the Voiles de Saint-Tropez, and he seemed to suggest that Gitana 18 has huge potential, but that they really have to discover how to sail her—it’s definitely not a copy-paste from Gitana 17. For him, that was the main hurdle; he was obviously thinking about the transition phases where he risks being penalised against fully dialed-in boats.”
A Laperche/Le Cléac’h Showdown
“In those transition phases, Banque Populaire and SVR will have a slight edge,” Thomas Rouxel confirms. Our experts find it remarkably tough to separate these two boats when picking a favorite—so much so that their predictions average out to a tie. “The machines are incredibly close, as are Armel and Tom; they both need a major solo win in the Ultim class, so it’s going to come down to tiny details between them,” summarises Pierre-Marie Bourguinat. Some give a slight advantage to Armel Le Cléac’h (49), others to his young rival (29), with valid arguments on both sides. “I feel Armel has truly reached full maturity with his boat; I sailed on her during a training camp in Port-la-Forêt and found it very stable. Plus, Armel is on a mission—the Route du Rhum is the one big title missing from his resume,” notes Yann Eliès.
“I’d give a small edge in terms of reliability to Banque Populaire, because this year SVR-Lazartigue has dealt with a lot of issues, even if it wasn’t always their fault since they hit debris,” adds Thomas Rouxel, pointing in particular to the starboard foil breakage in early September, replaced for the Rhum with the V1 foil. However, he adds: “And yet, it was still SVR that won the 24H Ultim,” the only head-to-head racing contest of the season.
A point also noted by Gaston Morvan: “Banque Pop is perhaps a touch simpler and more robust than the others, but recently she has always trailed SVR. Having seen it with my own eyes, I think Tom’s team is riding great momentum, making real strides, particularly thanks to Franck (Cammas), who injects incredible energy whenever he commits to a project. I feel the boat is a bit faster at times than her rivals; now, she just has to stay in one piece for six days!”
“You should never count
Thomas out in solo racing”
On the podium, tied with Charles Caudrelier, our experts place Anthony Marchand (Actual Ultim 3, 41) who, according to Yann Eliès, “is starting to get the full measure” of his boat, the former Gitana 17. “She won the Rhum last time around, so she’s a proven machine,” adds Gaston Morvan. “Much like Franck with Tom, Antho benefits from the guidance of Pascal Bidégorry, who is exactly the kind of profile that elevates a project and a team to the next level,” suggests Pierre-Marie Bourguinat, while Thomas Rouxel adds: “On paper, his pace isn’t yet matching the caliber of skipper and boat, but he can clearly fight for a podium spot, or even better if technical troubles hit SVR or Banque Pop.”
What about Thomas Coville (Sodebo Ultim 3) who, at 58, is gearing up for his eighth consecutive Rhum—likely his last? “You should never count Thomas out in solo racing; he’ll obviously be determined to finish in style, but there remains a clear performance gap between his boat and the rest, as we saw again at the 24H Ultim. Over a 6-to-7-day sprint, it’s bound to be tough for him, despite all his talent, experience, and drive,” replies Pierre-Marie Bourguinat.
“He shouldn’t be unhappy with the weather forecast, because downwind he can match the others,” Gaston Morvan qualifies, while Thomas Rouxel highlights the boat’s successful Jules Verne attempt last winter: “That’s a huge asset in terms of reliability, even though they have changed foils since; these boats are so intricate that the moment you make significant modifications, you reset the reliability dial.” Yann Eliès remains somewhat skeptical: “Whether in training or at the 24H Ultim, their pace was genuinely behind the pack despite the arrival of new foils.”
Our experts’ podium: 1. Armel Le Cléac’h and Tom Laperche, 3. Charles Caudrelier and Anthony Marchand
Photo : Ultim Sailing
