Ultim: SVR-Lazartigue in control
“We can talk about a faultless performance,” agrees Erwan Israël. “They have the slight edge in speed over their direct competitors which allows them not to take risks, to be just conservative enough, and therefore not to make mistakes; we saw it again this Friday with their route around Cape Verde to the west.” Conversely, Sodebo Ultim 3 (Thomas Coville/Benjamin Schwartz) was more daring, notably crossing the Canaries between the islands, which makes Jean-Yves Bernot say: “Wind shadows are always the same thing, they start well and end badly. It’s a strategy I don’t like very much, because you gain little and lose a lot, even if, ultimately, they didn’t do so badly.”
For Erwan Israël, “the move almost worked, even if the operation turned out to be somewhat neutral because they had a slightly stronger wind shadow than expected. I don’t know if that put them off and if that’s the reason why they chose to go around Cape Verde to the east.“ An option not followed by Actual Ultim 4 (Anthony Marchand/Julien Villion), the former Maxi Edmond de Rothschild, third this Friday, about whom Jean-Yves Bernot notes: “They seem a little slower at times, but that may seem normal, because these boats take so long to get a handle on.”
What about Banque Populaire XI (Armel Le Cléac’h/Sébastien Josse), trailing the leader by about 250 miles? Can they hope to catch up? “In the short term, they will lose more ground due to weakening trade winds,” replies Erwan Israël. “Where the others passed at 30 knots flying, they should be at 15-20 in displacement mode. Then, the answer is in the Doldrums which start very far north, around 10-11°, and which SVR should hit quite early, Saturday morning. There are big differences according to the models, some are very alarming and suggest a big compression for the top three. Personally, I’m not convinced it will be that horrible. What is certain is that the situation improves over time, and the later you arrive, the better it will be.” Enough to give the defending champions a little more hope…
Ocean Fifty: Edenred already sharp
Although he took some time to look at the chart again, Erwan Le Draoulec admits he was “blown away by the demonstration of Pierre (Quiroga) and Gaston (Morvan) at the start of the race,“ adding: “The older boats like Wewise are certainly a little less flighty and stronger, but their weather track was exemplary.” They were finally caught by Edenred (Basile Bourgnon/Emmanuel Le Roch) on Tuesday shortly before the Canaries. “Edenred is really consistent, they make few errors when they are ahead, they have the speed that allows them to accelerate a little when they need it, they are agile in variable winds, I like what they are doing,” appreciates Jean-Yves Bernot.
For Erwan Le Draoulec, the performance of the latest addition to the fleet (Romaric Neyhousser design), launched last July, is noteworthy: “Basile and Manu, who didn’t have many miles to test it, were able to take advantage of the boat’s potential on the reach to catch up with Wewise before the Canaries; they weren’t messing around! In light of the 24h Ultim, we thought they wouldn’t be very comfortable in light air, but they crossed the light winds of the Canaries quite well, that’s a good point for them.” For him, the next 48 hours until they exit Cape Verde look particularly important: “Light winds are not far to the south, we could see a new compression. The first to extricate themselves from Cape Verde will have scored points, because after that, there are no more weather stops on the route.”
Which doesn’t mean the game will be over, because the transatlantic crossing itself can favor boats that perform well downwind, such as the defending champion Solidaires en Peloton (Thibaut Vauchel-Camus/Damien Seguin), Le Rire Médecin Lamotte (Luke Berry/Antoine Joubert) or Viabilis Océans (Baptiste Hulin/Thomas Rouxel), who has come back into the match well after his pit stop in L’Aber Wrac’h. “I did a transat with Thomas (Rouxel), adds Erwan Le Draoulec, I know his talent at the helm and his sense of glide. In my opinion, they must be rubbing their hands together to be there today, they will know how to get the potential out of their boat in the trade winds. Sometimes it’s also on these parts of the race that some make the difference. One or two knots more speed over a week of racing can make a lot of miles at the finish.”
Imoca: which way out?
Before explaining the current weather situation: “For more than a week, we have been in an active low-pressure flow over our coasts, with fronts crossing the North Atlantic and pushing the Azores high very far south, so the area of light winds has moved to the immediate north of the Canaries. Since the archipelago is a course mark (to be left to starboard), they are all forced to cross this zone to hope to catch the first signs of the trade winds as quickly as possible.” Everyone is trying to find the way out in these conditions, and “between the one who has 2 knots of wind and the one who has 3 or 4, that can make a huge difference; generally, the one who gets out first catches the wind first, the rich get richer.”
This Friday, it is 11th Hour Racing Team (Francesca Clapcich/Will Harris) that is leading, but for Erwan Le Draoulec, “they will all get out more or less at the same time,” while Jean-Yves Bernot estimates that “once at the Canaries, they will have to go down again, before crossing the Atlantic, because the trade wind is poorly established.”
Will the downwind descent in the trade wind then benefit the boats presumed to be comfortable in these conditions, like Allagrande Mapei (Ambrogio Beccaria/Thomas Ruyant) or Charal based on what it has shown so far? “Yes, from 18-20 knots, particularly for the Koch designs like Mapei, replies Nicolas Lunven. If the trade wind is not very strong, around 15 knots, as seems to be the case for now, the speed differences will not be significant and the Verdier designs can also do well. In any case, we should see a new start, which will make the second part of the race exciting.”
Class 40: the favorites are ahead
“The ranking is not surprising, those we expected are ahead, adds Erwan Le Draoulec, who has raced in Class40. I spoke to Pep (Costa) on the phone, he told me that the speeds of the Lift V3 (SNSM Faites un don!) were impressive. Now, they have almost only raced upwind; the downwind is coming, which will undoubtedly reshuffle things, particularly in favor of the Italian boats (Musa 40) which are very versatile.”
Photo : Jean-Marie Liot / Alea